Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei faces worst crisis in 35 years as Israel launches major assault on Iran.
Khamenei, who is 86 years old, must decide whether to intensify the conflict and run the risk of starting a wider conflict or to try diplomacy and maybe end the nuclear aspirations that have characterized his presidency.
Israel Targets Iran’s Core
The Israeli air campaign has not only destroyed key military assets but has also placed direct pressure on Khamenei’s leadership. Israel’s defense minister declared that the Iranian leader “cannot continue to exist” following missile strikes on key Iranian infrastructure.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance, which includes Hamas and Hezbollah, has been seriously undermined, and the Revolutionary Guard, formerly Khamenei’s most potent ally, is under attack.
Khamenei’s Rise to Power
Khamenei succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989 despite lacking religious clout.He started off as a low-level priest but quickly rose to prominence by bolstering the Revolutionary Guard’s political and economic clout and increasing the influence of the Shiite clergy.
He reigned for a longer period of time than his predecessor and, with an emphasis on regional proxy power and anti-Western ideology, turned Iran’s Islamic Republic into a regional power.
Crushing Internal Dissent
Khamenei has a long history of crushing domestic opposition:
- 2009 Green Movement protests over rigged elections
- 2017 & 2019 economic protests amid sanctions
- 2022 Mahsa Amini protests over women’s rights enforcement
Each time, the regime responded with brutal crackdowns. But public anger continues to simmer beneath the surface, eroding the regime’s legitimacy.
Developing a Power Base in the Region
Khamenei’s policy created a potent Axis of Resistance because of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and Assad’s coalition in Syria:
- The Lebanon Hezbollah
- Gaza’s Hamas
- Iraqi Shiite militias
- Yemeni Houthis
Until recently, this partnership put Iran right at Israel’s doorstep.
The Collapse of Iran’s Strategic Network
Following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack, Israel responded with full military force. Within months:
- Gaza was devastated, weakening Hamas
- Hezbollah lost ground in southern Lebanon
- Assad’s fall in Syria ended a critical Iranian foothold
- Sunni rebels now control Damascus, shifting power away from Iran
Khamenei’s carefully built empire is crumbling.
What Comes Next?
Now, Khamenei must choose:
- Continue the war, risking Israeli and possibly U.S. escalation
- Pursue negotiations, risking internal backlash and the loss of Iran’s nuclear leverage
His defiant speech on Wednesday suggests he won’t back down, but Iran’s military, economic, and political vulnerabilities are more exposed than ever.
Source: AP News
